class: top, left, inverse, title-slide # Untangling biodiversity changes
across a continuum of spatial scales ##
PhD Presentation ###
PhD candidate: François Leroy
Supervisor: Petr Keil ### Czech University of Life Sciences
Prague --- # Biodiversity changes are scale dependent * **Global** biodiversity is **declining** -- * **Local, regional or national** trends are **not always** similar <img src="data:image/png;base64,#images/litrev.jpg" width="2604" height="430px" /> --- # Biodiversity changes are scale dependent * **Global** biodiversity is **declining** * **Local, regional or national** trends are **not always** similar <br><br><br> .center[ ### `\(\Rightarrow\)` Dynamic processes (*i.e.* colonization, extinction, turnover...) vary with spatial scales ] -- <br> .center[ ### `\(\Rightarrow\)` Biodiversity trends have to be assessed across spatial scales ] --- class: inverse, center, middle # Objectives <br><br> ### `\(\Rightarrow\)` How are avian biodiversity changes scale dependent across Czechia? <br><br> ### `\(\Rightarrow\)` Why do we observe this scale dependency of biodiversity changes? --- # Scales * **Spatial scale** `\(=\)` **Spatial grain** <br><br><br> .center[ <img src="data:image/png;base64,#images/spatialgrain.jpg" width="3716" /> ] --- # Scales * **Temporal scale** `\(=\)` **Temporal grain** <br><br><br> .center[ <img src="data:image/png;base64,#images/temporalgrain.jpg" width="80%" /> ] --- # Biodiversity data * One dataset express the biodiversity at its specific spatial and temporal grains * Data heterogeneity in spatial and temporal grains and extent * Lack of data -- <br><br> ## Problem: With the actual data, it is not straight forward to assess biodiversity trends for a continuum of spatial scales --- # Spatial aggregation **Jarzyna *et al.* (2015)** <br><br><br> .center[ <img src="data:image/png;base64,#images/jarzyna2015.jpg" width="2684" height="150%" /> ] --- # Spatial aggregation **Chase *et al.* (2019)** .center[ <img src="data:image/png;base64,#images/chase_2019.PNG" width="75%" /> ] --- # Model .pull-left[ * Use biodiversity data with heterogeneous: **spatial grain, temporal grain, location, spatial extent and temporal extent**. <br><br> * Use this component as **covariates** to predict species richness at desired (spatial & temporal) grain and location (in space & time) ] .pull-right[ <img src="data:image/png;base64,#images/keil_chase_title.PNG" width="1529" /> .center[ <img src="data:image/png;base64,#images/keil_chase_2022.PNG" width="75%" /> ] ] --- # Model <br><br> **In practice:** ``` treeBasedModel(species richness ~ area, -> Species-area relationship temporal grain, -> Species-time relationship latitude, -> Location in space longitude, -> Location in space date) -> Location in time ``` <br> Tree based models: the flexibility grasps the interactions between **species area/time relationship** and their location in space and time. The species-area and species-time relationships allows to down/upscale species richness -- <br> .center[ ### `\(\Rightarrow\)` We need data at different spatial and temporal grains ] --- # Bird atlas of Czech Republic .pull-left[ .center[**Spatial scales**] Large scale dataset. Ranging from less than **100 Km** `\(^2\)` to **80 000 Km** `\(^2\)` (the entire Czech Republic) <img src="data:image/png;base64,#images/spatialgrain_atlas.jpg" width="1608" /> ] .footnote[ Courtesy of Vladimír Bejček, Karel Šťastný and Ivan Mikuláš ] .pull-right[ .center[**Temporal scales**] 3 time periods, 3 different time spans: * M2 = 1985-1989 (**5 years**) * M3 = 2001-2003 (**3 years**) * M4 = 2014-2017 (**4 years**) ] -- <br><br> .center[ ### `\(\Rightarrow\)` The model homogenize the temporal grain and the sampling effort ] --- # Breeding bird survey (BBS)
--- # Breeding bird survey (BBS) dataset .pull-left[ **Spatial scales:** very local **Temporal scales:** from 0.5 year to 10+ years .center[ <br><br> ### `\(\Rightarrow\)` The model predict species richness for missing years ] .footnote[Courtesy of Jiří Reif] ] .pull-right[
] --- # Richness change across scales * For each spatial scale: predictions of species richness from 1987 to 2017 * Assessment of the species richness change per year <br><br> <img src="data:image/png;base64,#images/spatialgrain.jpg" width="3716" /> --- # Richness changes across scales .center[ <img src="data:image/png;base64,#images/srtrend.jpg" width="85%" /> ] --- # Richness changes across scales .center[ <img src="data:image/png;base64,#images/srtrend_details.jpg" width="3916" /> ] --- # Colonization, extinction, persistence across scales .center[ ## Extinction <img src="data:image/png;base64,#images/extinction_concept.JPG" width="62%" /> .credit[modified from Keil et al. (2017)] ] --- # Colonization, extinction, persistence across scales .center[ ## Colonization <img src="data:image/png;base64,#images/colonization_concept.JPG" width="50%" /> .credit[modified from Keil et al. (2017)] ] --- # Colonization, extinction, persistence across scales .center[ <img src="data:image/png;base64,#images/CEP.JPG" width="150%" /> ] --- # Colonization, extinction, persistence across scales .center[ <img src="data:image/png;base64,#images/CEP_sr.jpg" width="68%" /> ] --- # Similarity across scales .center[ `\(jaccard = \frac{persistence}{persistence+colonization+extinction}\)` <img src="data:image/png;base64,#images/jaccard.JPG" width="75%" /> ] --- # Conclusion This pattern: .center[ <img src="data:image/png;base64,#images/srtrend-copy.jpg" width="75%" /> ] Can be explained by the spatial scaling of dynamic processes: * `\(\nearrow\)` **persistence** with increasing spatial grain * different `\(\searrow\)` slope of **extinction** and **colonization** with increasing spatial grain * `\(\searrow\)` temporal turnover with increasing spatial grain --- # Conclusion .center[ ### `\(\Rightarrow\)` As colonization, extinction and persistence are scale dependent, we observe a scale dependency of biodiversity change ] -- <br><br> .center[ ### `\(\Rightarrow\)` Assessing biodiversity trends at national scale doesn't inform much about local dynamic and vice-versa ] -- <br><br> .center[ ### `\(\Rightarrow\)` Using heterogeneous dataset allows to model biodiversity at location and time where data is missing ] --- class: inverse, center, middle ## So what has happened with bird biodiversity from the 80's through now in Czechia? <br><br> `\(\Rightarrow\)` Even though we may not notice change at the spatial scale we experience everyday (*i.e.* local), species richness at Czechia's scale has increased <br> `\(\Rightarrow\)` Increase of species richness at large scale isn't a sign of ecosystems well-being: it can be due to invasive alien species <br> `\(\Rightarrow\)` Species richness is linked to high extinction debt --- class: top, center # Acknowledgments .pull-left[ **Collaborators** <img src="data:image/png;base64,#images/acknowledgments.jpg" width="80%" /> ] .pull-right[ **The hundreds volunteers** <div style="border: 1px solid #ddd; padding: 0px; overflow-y: scroll; height:400px; overflow-x: scroll; width:400px; "><table> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Pavel Benda </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Petr Moutelík </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Roman Neckár </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Honza Havlícek </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Monika Suržinová </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Miroslav Král </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Irena Wenischová </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Štepán Vavruch </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Martin Pudil </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Veronika Zavadilová </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Alexej Král </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Mojmír Sedlácek </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jirí Mikšícek </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Marie Hánová </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jirí Hrouzek </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Marek Haluzík </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jaroslav Teringl </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Pavel Repa </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Petr Lumpe </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Roman Vacík </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Ondrej Cerný </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jirí Vítecek </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tomáš Korytár </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jirí Filípek </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Václav Tomášek </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Marie Süssová </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tatána Maríková </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Josef Sokol </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tadeáš Serafin </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Václav Mikeš </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Ludek Jokel </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Lubomír Peške </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Ondrej Volf </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> tomas kuchta </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Šutera Václav </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Katerina Zímová </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tomáš Kunca </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jan Krivský st. </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jakub Cejka </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Stanislav Grym </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Martin Juna </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Ivan Kunstmüller </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jakub Šimurda </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Markéta Rychlá </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jirí Flousek </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Petr Tichý </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tomáš Diviš </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> miroslav vanác </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Pavel Vít </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jirí Mach </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Martina Hanzlíková </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Karel Poprach </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Dalibor Herda </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Petr Kovarík </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Václav Beran </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Hana Kazmírová </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Pavel Kurka </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Karel Pavelka </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jirí Brožek </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Yveta Konecná </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Vladimír Bejcek </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Karel Machac </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Ludek Plot </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Ružena Machacová </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Ladislav Jasso </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Mojmír Dostál </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Alena Klvanová </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Michael Mattas </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Petr Klvana </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Roman Mulácek </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Dušan Vodnárek </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Milan Turek </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Noela Small </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Petr Mašek </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Josef Vrána </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Ondrej Bielik </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Petr Kafka </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jirí Zeman </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Vít Tejrovský </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Elena Kameníková </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Milan Tichai </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Vladimír Mikule </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jan Zouzalík </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jaromír Cejka </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jaroslav Bažant </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> František Kopecký </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Miroslav Horák </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jakub Vrána </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Borek Franek </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Pavel Kirchner </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jana Škorpilová </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jan Vidlar </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Markéta Tichácková </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Katerina Ševcíková </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Zdenek Mrkácek </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jirí Lehký </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Ludek Petrilák </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Vojtech Brlík </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Lucie Štepánová </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jana Glombová </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Hana Trachtulcová </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Lukáš Jonák </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Vladimír Cížek </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Katerina Janová </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> David Bubák </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Martin Cicvárek </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Oldrich Bušek </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jan Haber </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Petr Hora </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Václav Kovár </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Vladimír Toman </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Norman Novák </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jirí Vaník </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Michael Strnad </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jan Procházka </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Martin Šterba </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Ivan Mikuláš </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Petra Hlavácová </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Veronika Skopcová </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Ivan Zídek </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Petr Voríšek </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Michael Fiala </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Zdenek Vermouzek </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jana Kristianová </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jaromír Šifta </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Josef Chytil </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Radislav Pražák </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Petr Zobac </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Kamil Cihák </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jirí Šírek </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jaroslav Vanek </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jan Stríteský </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Michal Stanek </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Ivo Machar </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jakub Machán </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Andrea Höchsmannová </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jirí Kult </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Miroslav Dvorský </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tomáš Belka </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Milan Škrott </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Vít Dvorák </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Róbert Špilák </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Iveta Karhánková </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jaroslav Chloupek </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Karel Novotný </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Martin Veselý </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jirí Veselý </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Viktor Siegl </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jirí Reif </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Vojtech Hájek </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Martin Došlý </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Petr Pavlík </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Petr Kolka </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jirí Šebestian </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Denisa Hladovcová </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Vera Lívancová </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> František Stránský </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Luboš Mráz </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Vladimír Šoltys </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jaroslav Pech </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jirina Vilímová </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Milan Adamovský </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Oldrich Forman </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Ondrej Šterba </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jan Šolc </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Vojtech Kodet </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Alois Holub </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tomáš Knežícek </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Ivan Tláskal </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Ivo Hertl </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Vojtech Volf </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Dana Rymešová </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Lubomír Dolanský </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Josef Vojta </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Vladimír Gahura </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Libor Dvorák </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Libor Praus </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Ivo Roze Kolchar </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Miroslava Horáková </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jaroslav Križka </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Radek Remar </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Martin Vymazal </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jan Karbus </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jirí Pavelka </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Miloslav Haifler </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Antonín Gibiš </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Pavel Ježek </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Václav Strolený </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Luboš Boucek </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jirí Pykal </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Martin Smola </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Ivan Pruša </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jirí Sládecek </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jaroslav Šimek </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> David Storch </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Miroslav Bažant </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Pavel Marhoul </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Vojtech Vták </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jindrich Poríz </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jan Fišer </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Martin Paclík </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Martina Štepánková </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jirí Zajíc </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Petr Krecek </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jirí Rohlena </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Marcela Rýparová </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jirí Hlavácek </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jaroslav Svoboda </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jakub Hlavácek </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Aleš Toman </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Vasil Hutník </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Josef Chobot </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> David Rešl </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Ondrej Pelánek </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Zdenek Volf </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jirí Necid </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Petr Šaj </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Ivana Kroutilová </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Marie Helebrandová </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tomáš Ružicka </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tomáš Brinke </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jaroslav Kolecek </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Radovan Mourek </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Vlastimil Dobeš </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Filip Starosta </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Ludek Ludánek </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Markéta Zárybnická </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Pavla Pánová </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Pavel Bergmann </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jirí Vlcek </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tereza Kejzlarová </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> L. Lešák </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Klára Poláková </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Milan Medvecký </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Lucie Hošková </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Milan Frencl </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Irena Filipová </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jan Havlícek </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tomáš Stohr </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Petr Musil </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> David Horák </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Zuzana Musilová </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jan Studecký </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Adéla Trávnícková </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Lukáš Kadava </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Filip Hruška </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Zdenek Tyller </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Vojtech Mrlík </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Aleš Svoboda </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jirí Esterka </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Miroslav Dusík </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Martin Pelánek </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Martin Vavrík </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jan Buchta </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Daniel Krenek </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> František Vrbacký </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Pavla Tájková </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Pavel Šálek </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Pavel Jaška </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Veronika Danková </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Václav Dvorák </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jirí Šafránek </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Václav Salac </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Petr Cervenka </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Libor Ševcík-KL </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Roman Kus </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jan Havelka </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> František Nosek </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jaroslav Veselý </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Martin Šálek </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Robin Šícha </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jakub Vlcek </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Šárka Pochová </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Miloš Chaloupka </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Miroslav Jelínek </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Alois Schulz </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> signalista signalista </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tomáš Skrícek </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jan Krivský ml. </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Vladislav Kubícek </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Lenka Hodacová </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Karel Hurt </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Karel Štastný </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jan Sychra </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Pavel Rychetský </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Miloslav Homolka </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jan Krejcík </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Petr Navrátil </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Svetlana Vránová </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Pavel Lukeš </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Milan Ružicka </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Petr Pavelcík </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Petr Petrás </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Gašpar Camlík </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Michal Hnízdil </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Marek Palicka </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Martin Fejfar </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Zbynek Šácha </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Vladimír Štorek </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Radomír Beran </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jirí Bartoš </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Miroslav Šulák </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Ondrej Mazurek </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Vojtech Kubelka </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Zdenek Polášek </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jirí Bureš </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Pavel Olbert </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jan Riegert </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Vít Sova </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> David Fuka </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Anna Fuchsová </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jaroslav Cepák </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> František Pojer </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Stanislav Musil </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Martin Kupka </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Hana Brinkeová </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Gabriela Dobruská </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Ladislav Vítek </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tomáš Curry </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jana Vánová </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tomáš Telenský </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Václav Prášek </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Michal Kavka </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Antonín Reiter </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Radek Hampl </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Julius Klejdus </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> František Bárta </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Lukáš Rezác </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Michal Pešata </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Pavel Forejtek </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Lubor Novácek </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Karel Šimecek </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Aleš Hampl </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Aleš Prágr </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jáchym Müller </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Libor Hujícek </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jakub Stanco </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Aleš Vondrka </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Patrik Molitor </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Josef Velek </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Pavel Mucha </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Zdenek Klimeš </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Ondrej Bohác </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Michal Pakandl </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jan Hartl </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Martin Valášek </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> František Eidelpes </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Marius Jordánek </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Milena Prokopová </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Vlasta Škorpíková </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Zuzana Strnadová </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Petr Šimcík </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Libor Schröpfer </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Zbynek Piro </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Pavel Ružek </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Martin Lazarovic </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jan Veverka </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Lumír Vozábal </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Katerina Pilnácková </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Pavel Šmíd </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Nada Krkošková </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Josef Bárta </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Ota Vorel </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Petr Bürger </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Martin Strnad </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Pavel Štepánek </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Miroslav Šálek </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jaroslav Zanát </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jan Kapr </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jana Palmova </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Vladimír Lemberk </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Inga Freiberga </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Lubor Urbánek </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Kryštof Chmel </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Petr Moutelík </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> David Horal </td> </tr> </tbody> </table></div> ] --- class: inverse, center, middle # Thank you for your attention <br><br><br> <svg viewBox="0 0 512 512" style="position:relative;display:inline-block;top:.1em;fill:white;height:1em;" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"> <path d="M464 64H48C21.49 64 0 85.49 0 112v288c0 26.51 21.49 48 48 48h416c26.51 0 48-21.49 48-48V112c0-26.51-21.49-48-48-48zm0 48v40.805c-22.422 18.259-58.168 46.651-134.587 106.49-16.841 13.247-50.201 45.072-73.413 44.701-23.208.375-56.579-31.459-73.413-44.701C106.18 199.465 70.425 171.067 48 152.805V112h416zM48 400V214.398c22.914 18.251 55.409 43.862 104.938 82.646 21.857 17.205 60.134 55.186 103.062 54.955 42.717.231 80.509-37.199 103.053-54.947 49.528-38.783 82.032-64.401 104.947-82.653V400H48z"></path></svg> leroy@fzp.czu.cz <svg viewBox="0 0 512 512" style="position:relative;display:inline-block;top:.1em;fill:lightblue;height:2em;" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"> <path d="M459.37 151.716c.325 4.548.325 9.097.325 13.645 0 138.72-105.583 298.558-298.558 298.558-59.452 0-114.68-17.219-161.137-47.106 8.447.974 16.568 1.299 25.34 1.299 49.055 0 94.213-16.568 130.274-44.832-46.132-.975-84.792-31.188-98.112-72.772 6.498.974 12.995 1.624 19.818 1.624 9.421 0 18.843-1.3 27.614-3.573-48.081-9.747-84.143-51.98-84.143-102.985v-1.299c13.969 7.797 30.214 12.67 47.431 13.319-28.264-18.843-46.781-51.005-46.781-87.391 0-19.492 5.197-37.36 14.294-52.954 51.655 63.675 129.3 105.258 216.365 109.807-1.624-7.797-2.599-15.918-2.599-24.04 0-57.828 46.782-104.934 104.934-104.934 30.213 0 57.502 12.67 76.67 33.137 23.715-4.548 46.456-13.32 66.599-25.34-7.798 24.366-24.366 44.833-46.132 57.827 21.117-2.273 41.584-8.122 60.426-16.243-14.292 20.791-32.161 39.308-52.628 54.253z"></path></svg> @FrsLry <svg viewBox="0 0 496 512" style="position:relative;display:inline-block;top:.1em;fill:white;height:2em;" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"> <path d="M165.9 397.4c0 2-2.3 3.6-5.2 3.6-3.3.3-5.6-1.3-5.6-3.6 0-2 2.3-3.6 5.2-3.6 3-.3 5.6 1.3 5.6 3.6zm-31.1-4.5c-.7 2 1.3 4.3 4.3 4.9 2.6 1 5.6 0 6.2-2s-1.3-4.3-4.3-5.2c-2.6-.7-5.5.3-6.2 2.3zm44.2-1.7c-2.9.7-4.9 2.6-4.6 4.9.3 2 2.9 3.3 5.9 2.6 2.9-.7 4.9-2.6 4.6-4.6-.3-1.9-3-3.2-5.9-2.9zM244.8 8C106.1 8 0 113.3 0 252c0 110.9 69.8 205.8 169.5 239.2 12.8 2.3 17.3-5.6 17.3-12.1 0-6.2-.3-40.4-.3-61.4 0 0-70 15-84.7-29.8 0 0-11.4-29.1-27.8-36.6 0 0-22.9-15.7 1.6-15.4 0 0 24.9 2 38.6 25.8 21.9 38.6 58.6 27.5 72.9 20.9 2.3-16 8.8-27.1 16-33.7-55.9-6.2-112.3-14.3-112.3-110.5 0-27.5 7.6-41.3 23.6-58.9-2.6-6.5-11.1-33.3 2.6-67.9 20.9-6.5 69 27 69 27 20-5.6 41.5-8.5 62.8-8.5s42.8 2.9 62.8 8.5c0 0 48.1-33.6 69-27 13.7 34.7 5.2 61.4 2.6 67.9 16 17.7 25.8 31.5 25.8 58.9 0 96.5-58.9 104.2-114.8 110.5 9.2 7.9 17 22.9 17 46.4 0 33.7-.3 75.4-.3 83.6 0 6.5 4.6 14.4 17.3 12.1C428.2 457.8 496 362.9 496 252 496 113.3 383.5 8 244.8 8zM97.2 352.9c-1.3 1-1 3.3.7 5.2 1.6 1.6 3.9 2.3 5.2 1 1.3-1 1-3.3-.7-5.2-1.6-1.6-3.9-2.3-5.2-1zm-10.8-8.1c-.7 1.3.3 2.9 2.3 3.9 1.6 1 3.6.7 4.3-.7.7-1.3-.3-2.9-2.3-3.9-2-.6-3.6-.3-4.3.7zm32.4 35.6c-1.6 1.3-1 4.3 1.3 6.2 2.3 2.3 5.2 2.6 6.5 1 1.3-1.3.7-4.3-1.3-6.2-2.2-2.3-5.2-2.6-6.5-1zm-11.4-14.7c-1.6 1-1.6 3.6 0 5.9 1.6 2.3 4.3 3.3 5.6 2.3 1.6-1.3 1.6-3.9 0-6.2-1.4-2.3-4-3.3-5.6-2z"></path></svg> FrsLry <svg viewBox="0 0 320 512" style="position:relative;display:inline-block;top:.1em;fill:white;height:1em;" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"> <path d="M302.189 329.126H196.105l55.831 135.993c3.889 9.428-.555 19.999-9.444 23.999l-49.165 21.427c-9.165 4-19.443-.571-23.332-9.714l-53.053-129.136-86.664 89.138C18.729 472.71 0 463.554 0 447.977V18.299C0 1.899 19.921-6.096 30.277 5.443l284.412 292.542c11.472 11.179 3.007 31.141-12.5 31.141z"></path></svg> https://frslry.github.io/ --- class: inverse, center, middle # Supplementary slides --- # Performance .pull-left[ **Atlas model** `\(XGBoost\)` `\(R^2 = 0.77\)` `\(MAE = 9\)` <img src="data:image/png;base64,#images/obsvspred_atlas.JPG" width="90%" /> ] .pull-right[ **BBS model** `\(Random Forest\)` `\(R^2 = 0.74\)` `\(MAE = 10\)` <img src="data:image/png;base64,#images/obsvspred_bbs.JPG" width="90%" /> ] --- # And what about temporal scaling? .center[ <img src="data:image/png;base64,#images/temporal_scaling.jpg" width="85%" /> ] --- # Turnover across scales .center[ `\(betasim = \frac{min(extinction,colonization)}{persistence + min(extinction,colonization)}\)` <img src="data:image/png;base64,#images/betasim.JPG" width="75%" /> ]